More 1st-Time Latinos Voted In 2018 Midterms, But Did The Total Increase?

More than one in four Latino voters – 27 percent – told NPC News exit pollsters on midterm election day Nov. 6 that they voted in the midterm elections for the first time.  But by press time Nov. 7, no one yet knew if the actual numbers and percentage of the total Latino electorate who voted had increased or not. The turnout rate of Latinos in midterm elections had declined since 2006 with an all-time low of 27 percent in 2014, even though a record number of Latinos (6.8 million) voted.  In 2018, a record 29 million Hispanics were eligible to vote – about 13 percent of the total U.S. electorate.  The expectation for 2018 is 7.8 million – about 25 percent of the Latino electorate, according to the Pew Research Center. So the number AND the percentage of the Latino electorate who voted are both important factors.

In the weeks before the election, however, several Latino advocacy groups such as NALEO (National Association of Latino Elected Officials, a non-partisan organization) expressed concern that Latino voters had been ignored. “60 percent had not been contacted by any political party. Both parties neglected to spend enough time and money directly encouraging Latinos to register and vote. It takes more than motivation. It actually does require some assistance to get those folks to the polls.”  But increasingly the rich diversity of Hispanic heritage voters also is being recognized. The Latino community is not a monolithic voting bloc.

Impact Of New Democratic Majority Congress

The Latino voice is changing in Congress with the voluntary exits of powerful Latino voices of Democrats Luis Gutierrez and earlier Javier Becerra (Calif); and Republicans Raul Labrador (Idaho) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.  The number of new Latino congressman is expected to increase – but it’s the change of the majority itself which will make the biggest impact on issues.  The majority gets the leadership of the House itself and all the committee heads, responsible for setting the agenda and the schedule. Many new Democratic representatives campaigned on the promise that they would focus on impeachment of the president and possibly new Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

But other issues also could change focus under the Democrats: the House Education and Workforce Committee might change names again (including the favorite democratic word “labor”) and focus on Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’s actions that relax regulations on for-profit colleges and limit student loan forgiveness, as well as tighten the standards-of-proof needed for accusations of campus sexual assault.

The House immigration sub-committee under Democratic leadership most likely will shift its focus from enforcement and building a wall to efforts to legalize illegal immigrants including DREAMers, DACA recipients and asylum seekers.  A trade-off deal might be possible via a “mini” comprehensive immigration bill.  It is highly unlikely that Democrats take up a proposal to reinterpret the first sentence of the 14th amendment to exclude from automatic birthrights citizenship children born in the U.S. whose both parents are illegal immigrants or tourists.  But if President Trump proposes the changes as an executive order, it is probable that Congress would appeal it, and it would eventually go to the U.S. Supreme Court for adjudication.

Latino Representation In Congress – Does It Match U.S. Demography?

Anyone of any race, creed and religion can run for a seat in Congress and the Senate.  There are no quotas based on demography.  Still the number of Congressional members who represents the diversity of the United States is carefully watched.  One could ask “based on what?”  Demographics of the national population or the state or the district? Here is the makeup of the current 115th Congress according to the 2017-2018 Congressional Handbook and the 2015 census:

• 67 percent of elected members are white, 77 percent of the population is (including both Hispanic and non-Hispanic whites)

• 79 percent of Congress is white male, about 49 percent of the country is; 21 percent are women, about 51 percent of the population is

• 9 percent of Congressional members are black, the population in 2015 was about 13 percent

• 7 percent of Congress is Latino compared to 17 percent of the population and growing

• Religious affiliations in Congress compared to the population is:

o Christians 40 percent vs. 75 percent

o Jewish 5 percent in Congress vs. 3.5 percent in the general population

o Mormons make up 2.5 percent of Congress (including the first Hispanic conservative Republican Idaho representative Raul Labrador) and about 2 percent of the population.

More women and more Hispanic heritage representatives were expected to be elected to Congress this midterm – but probably not enough in most categories to equal the population demographics. •