2025: More students or fewer at U.S. Colleges?
So, have more students enrolled in college in the academic year 2024-25 than last year – the true post-pandemic years when everything should be getting back to normal? Just count them, right? Turns out it’s not a simple question – or answer. Inside Higher Ed recently published an article titled “Report Finds Higher Ed Sector Shrank by 2 Percent”. NPR called it a “looming demographic cliff”. Yet other educational analysts found that college enrollment had actually increased in 2023-24: according to U.S. News & World Report, which has analyzed, tracked, and ranked higher education institutions for decades, “freshman enrollment rose 5.5% in fall 2024.” These numbers are important. They impact investments in colleges and how many graduates will be available for the U.S. work force five years hence.
The caveats are in the details, such as the kinds and numbers of colleges - four-year, two-year, for-profit and certificate programs – where the increase or decrease of undergraduates is occurring. “More undergraduates are pursuing short-term programs, like certificates and associate degrees, which increased by 9.9% and 6.3% respectively,” according to Educational Clearinghouse data. The number of undergraduates seeking bachelor's degrees grew by 2.9% according to their numbers, but overall concerns about the value of a four-year degree and taking on debt may have impacted growth, especially in the four-year college sector. The rise in the number of foreign students - now up to record highs – compared to U.S. residents could affect numbers as well. According to Brookings Institute education experts, a significant factor is the closure rate of small (less than 1000 students) four year colleges. With small or no endowments and little outside support, these colleges, especially in rural areas, are looking at closure or collaboration. However, according to Brookings, the real story is likely to be program elimination within colleges rather than full college closures. College survival is another factor potential students must consider as they research college choices.
Deportation and Birthrights Citizenship -- Now a College Issue?
With a new presidential administration intent on tightening immigration enforcement, two hot immigration questions at some U.S. colleges in 2025 seem to be: 1) Will University foreign-born students be deported? and 2) Will babies born of foreign-born students and faculty be recognized as U.S. Citizens?
The answer to the first question is a pretty unequivocal NO, especially if the foreign born student is “documented” – that is, has been naturalized or holds a legal foreign student permit (F or J) or a legal permanent resident permit – a green card. Students registered with the 2012 program Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) have been given specific temporary deferment from deportation, although technically, they have not been legalized, and their status is still illegal. The purported target of so-called “mass deportations” that were announced in an executive order by the Trump administration specifically focuses on first deporting convicted felons who are in the country illegally, have served time in the U.S. penal system and have fled known deportation. The only danger for international student visa holders is if they have overstayed their student permits and thus have entered unlawful status and are eligible for deportation if caught.
That being said, international students are highly prized by most universities and 2 and 4-year colleges for their tuition, body count and, sometimes, brain power. Students who are potentially graduates with advanced degrees in the STEM fields are being considered by both Republicans and Democrats as future recipients of automatic green cards. Even President Trump has made it a future priority.
2) The answer to the second question is also NO, if the Trump administration’s executive order that would make children born of temporary non-immigration permit holders ineligible for birthright citizenship is confirmed – probably by the Supreme Court. The order claims that temporary visa holders are not officially “under the jurisdiction of the U.S.” in the same way as permanent residency permit (green card) holders and naturalized citizens are. Under the executive order – which Congress could codify by – temporary and illegal immigrants are not eligible for citizenship and, therefore, their children should not be given birthright citizenship. The same would be true for children born of birth tourists.
The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution states that to be eligible for birthright citizenship, TWO requirements must be met: being born in the U.S., AND being subject to its jurisdiction. Trump’s executive order does not challenge or end the first requirement, which would need a constitutional amendment. The executive order only seeks to change those eligible under the second requirement – which has been done in the past. This executive order reflects several legislative proposals made to Congress since 2010, including HR1 under the 112th Congress.
Is the CPAC conference a game changer?
The Conservative PAC conference held every February in Washington DC is the biggest gathering of U.S. conservatives. But it’s always been relatively localized among traditional U.S. conservatives of all different persuasions. Their target issues have often been U.S. right wing. It was expected to be so this year, with Donald Trump winning not only the Presidential election and the popular vote, but also dominating the Republican party, which won the House and the Senate. His first 30 days in office have seen a flurry of Senate votes that have approved all of his cabinet choices, including some highly controversial ones. Especially, they have seen the President sign a record number of executive orders across the spectrum of conservative political and cultural issues. The thousands of people attending the three day CPAC event seem open to all his ideas.
But what has become clear by the end of the second day is that Trump and his advisors have hit on a driving theme that various sectors of society agree on: combatting bloat, waste and fraud in government bureaucracies that inexorably grow in size and cost; many are also increasingly inefficient as the years go by, no matter who is in charge. CPAC this year has seen a number of foreign conservative leaders take the stage to try to repeat the tone, message and popularity of President Trump.
A resounding rally cry in many sessions is enthusiastically repeated by the audience and reflects an iconic image many supporters hold of the President: fight! Fight! Fight! Or as several foreign visitor speakers from Latin America and Spain have said: ¡Lucha! ¡Lucha! ¡Lucha!
